TY - DATA T1 - Per annum growth rates of exogenous drivers for the historical period 1961–2006 PY - 2013/08/29 AU - Uris Lantz C Baldos AU - Thomas W Hertel UR - https://iop.figshare.com/articles/dataset/___Per_annum_growth_rates_of_exogenous_drivers_for_the_historical_period_1961_2006/1011570 DO - 10.6084/m9.figshare.1011570.v1 L4 - https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1479395 KW - climate change impacts KW - annum growth rates KW - time series estimates KW - simple KW - crop price KW - crop production KW - land use change KW - cropland use KW - model KW - Environmental Science N2 - Table 1.  Per annum growth rates of exogenous drivers for the historical period 1961–2006. Abstract Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961–2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes. ER -