TY - DATA T1 - RD&D and technology cost with and without observable expert, technology and study characteristics PY - 2013/08/21 AU - Laura Díaz Anadón AU - Gregory Nemet AU - Elena Verdolini UR - https://iop.figshare.com/articles/figure/_RD_amp_D_and_technology_cost_with_and_without_observable_expert_technology_and_study_characteristic/1011543 DO - 10.6084/m9.figshare.1011543.v1 L4 - https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1479368 KW - elicitation design factors impact KW - climate change mitigation efforts KW - logarithmic scales KW - expert elicitation KW - policy decisions KW - usa KW - EU counterparts KW - government research KW - percentile estimates KW - technology cost KW - industry experts KW - design characteristics increases experts KW - study characteristics KW - rd KW - future cost estimates KW - uncertainty ranges KW - cost expectations KW - energy policies KW - Abstract Characterization KW - use data KW - energy technologies KW - Environmental Science N2 - Figure 2. RD&D and technology cost with and without observable expert, technology and study characteristics. Axes in logarithmic scales. Abstract Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts' implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts' cost expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but the uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts' median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts are less confident about costs than Europeans. ER -