Supplementary material: Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability
Supplementary material to the publication:
Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability
T. K. Lissner, D. E. Reusser, J. Schewe, T. Lakes, and J. P. Kropp
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 403-442, 2014
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Detailed content description:
Table 1.: T1_elements_definitions.ods
The table provides background information on the identified elements
of AHEAD and the translation in a quantified representation, including the
choice of data as well as the fuzzy membership functions.
Tables 2. a-f: The tables provide country specific membership values for constant
values across timeslices, as well as projected values on the basis
of the ensemble mean (mean over all impact and climate models and RCPs).
Country names are represented using ISO3 codes (ISO 3166-1 alpha-3). Each
file with secnario values contains the timeslices 2000, 2030, 2060 and 2090.
a. T2a_fuzzyvalues.csv (membership values of all input variables to linguistic category: adequacy is high, constant values)
b. T2b_wateravail.csv (membership values to linguistic category: adequacy of water availability is high, scenario values)
c. T2c_subsistence.csv (aggregated values for the subindex Subsistence, scenario values)
d. T2d_infrastructure.csv (aggregated values for the subindex Infrastructure, constant values)
e. T2e_societalstructure.csv (aggregated values for the subindex Societal Structure, constant values)
f. T2f_AHEAD.csv (aggregated for the AHEAD Index, scenario values)
Table 3.: T3_uncertainty_classes.csv
Country-specific results for the classification of uncertainty,
following the decision-tree in Figure 2 and presented in Figure 5
for the four scenario timeslices.
netcdf-files contain
a) fuzzified scenario values (degree of membership to the linguistic category "conditions are adequate") for:
- water availability
- Subsistence subindex
- AHEAD index
b) First-order indicator of available renewable freshwater resources: we calculate annual mean runoff at each grid cell, and then redistribute it within each river basin according to the spatial distribution of discharge to account for cross–boundary flows between countries (Gerten et al., 2011). The result is summed up over every country and divided by the country’s population to obtain water resources per capita per year. Country-level population data according to UNWPP estimates for the historical period, and according to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP2 (ONeill et al., 2012) projection for the future, is obtained from the SSP Database at https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb and linearly interpolated to obtain annual values. For further details about the model simulations, see also Schewe et al. (2014). We calculate average per capita water availability for a baseline of 1981-2010 (2000) and calculate projected changes for the scenario period 2071-2099 (2090).
Filenames indicate the impact model, climate model, RCP scenario, CO2 scenario and variable names. Data on water availability are derived from ISI-MIP simulation. File name conventions follow ISI-MIP the documentation. See also https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/research/rd2-cross-cutting-activities/isi-mip/for-modellers/isi-mip-fast-track/simulation-protocol/simulationprotocol-as-of-2013_04_30_version2.3-1
